October 31, political analyst and director of the Center for European Transformation Andrei Yegorov outlined the visitors Vcitebsk "European club" of the state of relations between Belarus and the European Union at the moment, and expressed his opinion about how the situation will develop in the near future.
What hampered cooperation between the EU and Belarus?
The presence of political prisoners was the first obstacle that prevented develop any cooperation between the West and Belarus. And second - this election in a peaceful conduct of which the European Union was not really sure. Now the conditions of the West Belarusian authorities somehow fulfilled.
While the situation with the election, in this case, plays a more technical role, as the EU is no breakthrough on the authorities in this election is not expected. Basically, they were waiting for the official response to what will happen after the election: will the repression or not.
As seen Europeans elections were neither transparent nor free, but they saw that there is a certain liberalization of the electoral process: no brutal repression, which enables the European Union to begin the program of new relations with the Belarusian authorities. Now came the romantic period in the relations with the European Union.
What will it basically?
Currently, Belarus does not have normal bilateral relations with the EU. That is, there is no legal framework for the relationship. No formal agreement that all countries - EU neighbors already have. Ukraine has an agreement of association, Moldova and Georgia as well as others have agreement on partnership and cooperation.
The first thing to do - is to harmonize the legal basis for relations. The sanctions until frozen. At this time, the structure will be created, responsible for cooperation with the EU. Regardless of who runs the country, we need to have a normal legal relations, as it will greatly expand opportunities for the country. And for citizens, and for the Belarusian business. There will be good and the state, but in our case it will contribute to the further Europeanization of the country.
Belarus - a country that does not have normal relations with the European Union, because of what it receives from the least money. Despite the fact that we are in the so-called neighborhood policy, we get less money than Azerbaijan and Armenia, which have the same problems as our country. Now the money will be more will open new programs in higher education, culture, ecology, cross-border integration and so on. But our state money through the Eastern Partnership is not critical. It will be hundreds of millions, even billions of Belarus needs (about 3-6 billion per year). But for the "happy life" must be 8-10 billion, but such happiness is over and will not be repeated, because Russia is not able to finance its political satellites.
In fact, the money from the European Union - it is an investment, but the bureaucracy tends to distribute this money is not earmarked for specific projects, and in his own way. For example, there is a program of "green economy", which stimulates various types of innovation, but instead they can on this money, relatively speaking, to change the double-glazed windows or put energy saving light bulbs in the school.
To avoid this, it is necessary to create a specific control system.
Second, that the interests of the state - a financial instrument of the European Union, ie the European Investment Bank and the European anti-crisis fund. These are structures that can invest in Belarus has not millions, but under certain conditions - billions. Rather, the capacity of these structures can be expanded, but, again, not critical. If these lines can be allocated to Ukraine 5-10 billion, Belarus can expect a maximum of half a billion, but it will not be in direct budgetary investments, which hopes Lukashenko. In addition, Belarus will be expanded program of the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development. Already, on this line of Belarus annually receives 200 million. And it is quite large projects. For example, the road Minsk-Vilnius largely renovated it for the money of the bank, but the state of this says nothing.
The work of the bank there is a caveat: he does not give money to the state, and identifies them exclusively non-state actors, the money is transferred directly to them.
More power to calculate the aid of the International Monetary Fund. And on this issue the European Union may affect the way the money was given to Belarus. This can be a program of $ 3-5 billion, which is very important for the authorities. But the IMF is very offended by Belarus for the implementation of the previous program, when they were given money for the structural reforms that have been conducted. However, under the current political situation prevailing in the region, when investors favored look at Belarus, which seeks to maintain a balance and a certain neutrality, the European Union will help to ensure that the IMF has allocated money to Belarus. Over the next year or will be allocated the first tranche, or will go to intensive negotiations.
Third, it will - support for all sorts of reforms in Belarus.
With Belarus will be deployed talks about joining the World Trade Organization. There have already entered Kazakhstan and Russia. Belarus is interested in this entry, but that Belarus must meet a series of conditions that the authorities do not want to perform. They have a belief that the organization can enter only through political influence, without changing anything in substance.
The Bologna Process
For the first time in the history of the Bologna process the country has been accepted with certain conditions the implementation of the road map of reforms. And it was only made public thanks to the Bologna Committee and the National Platform. At the same time, we have used all our contacts and mechanisms to lobby the process roadmap for Belarus. And all this is imposed on the Belarusian authorities. Now, however, another problem: how this card will run?
Now we are trying to enter the control group, which was created to monitor the implementation of the road map. Entrance to the control group will allow to have direct information on what is happening. If you fail to enter the control group, then we will enter into an agreement with the European Union students to represent our interests there. And the fact that we are already involved in this process shows that we can influence essentially important issues of the country. By this we have been preparing for years.
It listed a number needed to add environmental and energy.
When will the romantic period?
These are the three main blocks of what will occur in the interaction between the European Union and Belarus in the nearest time. We call it the "romantic period" of relations between the European Union and the Belarusian authorities. But, as we know, this period will soon be over. And then the Europeans will watch the parliamentary elections in 2016, which can either indicates some changes in Belarus, or not to testify about them. Naturally, the Europeans can not affect anything in our country. Parliamentary elections - this is precisely the boundary to which, and will develop a new relationship between the EU and Belarus.
Jacob Drozd, Vitebsk Spring
