October 24 during a meeting with visitors of Viciebsk "European club" Minsk political scientist Andrey Liakhovich has forecast that there were no significant changes in the political sphere after the presidential election should be expected.
Here are brief abstracts outlined by Mr. Lyakhovich during the meeting.
These presidential elections were interested in the fact that no statement by the bought of political liberalization after the presidential election was not. This is despite the fact that before the elections, the West has done a number of steps towards Lukashenko. Among other things, two lists of officials has been reduced, which had previously been sanctioned.
Second, the West is strong enough to activate political contacts, if you look at the level of the officials who came to Minsk in 2015 and said Lukashenko to release political prisoners, about certain steps of liberalization.
What's interesting: in September 2015 Lukashenko, arrived at the UN Summit, to be photographed with Barack Obama and his wife, and this despite the fact that there came more than 150 heads of government and states. This photo shoot is also a definite signal for the local authorities. Thus he wanted to say that the West praised the fact that the head of Belarus supported the Russian aggression against Ukraine.
What are the steps for its part Lukashenko made towards the West?
The most important step was taken in late August: political prisoners were released. But despite the fact that the West said it was an important step in improving relations, there were well aware that it does not mean anything, because it's such a normal game Lukashenko to the West, and tomorrow all the former prisoners could easily go back to jail.
Lukashenka's statements about reformatting the OSCE was yet another signal that there are no significant changes after the presidential election should be expected. Before that, it was still a statement of an individual approach to participation in the "Eastern Partnership", ie Belarus will conduct talks only on issues that are of interest to Lukashenko: investments, loans, increase in turnover ... And no political liberalization.
The result of the presidential election
Yermoshina Lukashenko drew 83.5 percent. Why is that? Once she said: "My employer is the president." So, employers wished that was just such interest. By the way, before the presidential election, he said: "I want the presidential election I voted for 80 percent, as less – is quite serious." Like, who it will be taken seriously if it is not 80 per cent. Although the result of the presidential election is completely unprecedented, even for Eastern Europe. Even in the last election Putin drew only about 70%.
What is the promise of the West sent a rocket through its 83.5 percent?
Firstly, it means – no political liberalization in the coming years will not be.
I am now and I would venture to make a political forecast for the next five years: no free elections over the next five years will not be. This applies to parliamentary elections and also local elections. Drawing himself so much support, he wants to say that the parliamentary and local elections will be held only those candidates who are thinking correctly.
But if I did not say that the results of the election – is a reflection of domestic Neko Belarusian events. They only – part of the dialogue with the West, Lukashenko.
And it has a certain signal to the West. Recall the episode from 2010, when a journalist asked Lukashenko question: "What would happen if the parliament passed 10-15 opposition candidates?" He replied: "Of course, we could let the parliament the opposition 15. West would have been pleased at first, but then would require more. " End quote. That is, all will be as it was then.
As for political liberalization
We must remember that in addition to the liberalization of the electoral system of the West imposes Lukashenko and other requirements: it is discontinuing the practice of politically motivated dismissals from work, is the civilized working conditions for journalists, is the registration of social organizations, and more ... My prediction in this regard as sad: At Over the next five years, no changes will be.
Recent events show that Lukashenko headed for the overall improvement of relations with the West, but on the same conditions Worth West peculiar geopolitical contract. This is evidenced by a neutral position with respect to Ukraine, it is his promise about the formalities of his role in the union with Russia: Troops in Central Asia is not sent, do not place the database – let's develop trade and economic cooperation, but political liberalization is not necessary.
And another trump card Lukashenko: it frightens us and the West Square. Like, will the liberalization – will Maidan. Look, he says, in 2010 was the liberalization, and as a result, the storming of the Government House.
It got him a dialogue with the West, or not – is unknown, but he expects that work.
Moreover, the West has given some signals that he occupied the position of their geopolitical value.
About the release of political prisoners
The forecast is also sad. Much will depend on the outcome of talks with Lukashenko West, with the IMF. If they go to working, he will get an even greater assurance that the West can talk to the terms of this geopolitical contract. After that, most likely, this political break when Belarus: no political prisoners will soon be over. Again behind bars are the same people. I believe that this will not pause long.
Another factor in favor of the authenticity of the sad predictions: Belarus large staff of the so-called power structures (one hundred thousand population accounts for 1140 employees – is the largest number in the world). The state as repressive, and remained.
Besides, Lukashenka scared Example Gaddafi. Here, of course, much irrationality, but somehow the horror of dictators who were defeated, he is present.
What changes have really happened?
Topic Internal policies can be completed a little economic analysis. Recently, Medvedev said that here there are some changes. This year has not been a political economic cycle. Previously, always before the elections, do not pay attention to economic factors, there was increase of salaries. This year salaries, by contrast, fell for the first time. For the first time there have been economically unnecessary and dismissal of workers. And layoffs were significant. For the first time the inflation rate was 1% a month, and not as big as before. That is the first time during the year was carried out more or less normal economic policy, although, of course, no structural economic reforms: no. I believe that this trend is on a realistic economic policy, but without structural economic reforms will continue. Wages, as before, will not grow. Such a balanced policy can be explained as the need to get loans from the IMF and the absolute certainty that no social explosion, even in such a difficult socio-economic situation will not.
In addition to those mentioned, in his speech to the analyst Viciebsk residents raised a number of important points concerning the Belarusian-Russian relations, as well as the relations between Belarus and China.
